TOR beat OTT 3–2. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Justin Holl scored at 18:05 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 50% to 94%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:09 |  OTT | Shane PintoPP from Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 19:43 | TOR | David Kampf from Jake Muzzin, Calle Jarnkrok | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 13:24 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Auston Matthews, John Tavares | 1–2 | 53% → 86% |
| P3 14:49 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Alex DeBrincat, Thomas Chabot | 2–2 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 18:05 | TOR | Justin Holl from Michael Bunting, Mitch Marner | 2–3 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 15:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.13 | +0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Shane Pinto C | 15:28 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.29 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:10 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 17:00 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 20:40 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 19:40 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 20:48 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 8:36 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:30 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 12:12 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 17:14 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:45 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 6:38 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 20:06 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 20:13 | −0.32 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 18:14 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:42 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 26:59 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.12 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 58:24 | +0.08 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Holl D | 20:42 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.28 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 17:32 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 12:00 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.17 | +0.77 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 17:46 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.25 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 19:38 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.28 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 17:42 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:21 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.33 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 15:12 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:39 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:15 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:04 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Denis Malgin C | 12:49 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:25 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 20:48 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.34 | −0.54 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:44 | −0.19 | +0.15 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:34 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:15 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:55 | −0.38 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | +0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.