WPG beat NYR 4–1. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Gagner scored at 15:35 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:29 |  WPG | Mark Scheifele from Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 3:55 | NYR | Dryden Hunt from Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin | 1–1 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 15:35 | WPG | Sam Gagner from Saku Maenalanen, David Gustafsson | 1–2 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 18:23 | WPG | Mark ScheifelePP from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:40 | WPG | Kyle ConnorEN from Blake Wheeler | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dryden Hunt L | 8:02 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.05 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:43 | +0.32 | +0.32 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:23 | +0.20 | +0.30 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:57 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 15:14 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 5:44 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:30 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 13:45 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 19:07 | −0.13 | +0.30 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:58 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:20 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:46 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.18 | −0.38 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:40 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 14:20 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:05 | −0.42 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 17:13 | −0.44 | −0.04 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.16 | −0.66 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:47 | −0.61 | −0.13 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 58:58 | +0.58 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:08 | 2 | +1.39 | +0.13 | +1.18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 9:41 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.12 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 22:09 | +0.24 | +0.33 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 8:36 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Saku Maenalanen R | 8:50 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:30 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:29 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 14:53 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 14:51 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:13 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 15:01 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 19:39 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:13 | −0.35 | −0.41 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 18:42 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:58 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 14:19 | −0.43 | +0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.09 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +2.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.