MTL beat TOR 4–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Josh Anderson scored at 19:41 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Matt Murray allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:41 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 0:33 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, David Savard | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 9:06 | TOR | Denis Malgin from John Tavares, William Nylander | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 15:56 | MTL | Cole Caufield unassisted | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 17:30 | MTL | Sean Monahan from Jordan Harris, Kirby Dach | 2–3 | 51% → 93% |
| P3 18:10 | TOR | William NylanderPP from John Tavares, Morgan Rielly | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| P3 19:41 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Nick Suzuki | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Malgin C | 11:33 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.07 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 12:58 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.08 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 19:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.10 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| TJ Brodie D | 19:42 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:32 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 18:20 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 18:28 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:43 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:02 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 19:29 | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:19 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:54 | −0.19 | +0.22 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:41 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 14:50 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:09 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:33 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 18:11 | −0.47 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:18 | −0.61 | +0.34 | −0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 59:18 | −1.54 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 18:18 | 2 | +1.39 | +0.06 | +1.34 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:36 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.12 | +0.80 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:15 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.05 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 10:34 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 11:04 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:34 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 22:29 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 16:38 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 19:41 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:24 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.11 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Evans C | 9:09 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 15:29 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:33 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 15:26 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 11:33 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 12:47 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:47 | +1.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.