NYR beat WSH 3–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dryden Hunt scored at 6:42 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:26 | NYR | Filip Chytil from Kaapo Kakko, Braden Schneider | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:01 |  WSH | Justin Schultz from Trevor van Riemsdyk | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 5:13 | WSH | John CarlsonPP from Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 15:44 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Ryan Strome, Braden Schneider | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 6:42 | NYR | Dryden Hunt from Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson D | 24:52 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.59 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:10 | +0.24 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:47 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:14 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 9:47 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:50 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:35 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 11:18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:41 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 14:06 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 11:17 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:12 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 11:57 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 15:53 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 18:12 | −0.37 | +0.31 | −0.69 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:32 | −0.43 | +0.12 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 57:38 | −0.40 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dryden Hunt L | 11:19 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:09 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.09 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 12:25 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.08 | +0.52 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 14:57 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 16:52 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:45 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 22:58 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:03 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:33 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 16:08 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:40 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:02 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 11:13 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:04 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 16:57 | −0.39 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 10:27 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 14:53 | −0.63 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.