BUF beat CHI 3–2 in overtime. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt scored at 2:07 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:47 | CHI | Dominik Kubalik from Alex Vlasic, Tyler Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 4:16 |  BUF | Tage Thompson from Jeff Skinner | 1–1 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 9:33 | CHI | Dylan Strome from Caleb Jones, Alex DeBrincat | 2–1 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 14:22 | BUF | Owen Power unassisted | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 2:07 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Dylan Cozens, Henri Jokiharju | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:21 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.03 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.07 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 17:49 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 7:51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 11:05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 13:41 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 19:33 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 16:43 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 18:03 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 13:48 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 7:48 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 19:24 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 21:08 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 20:29 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 14:36 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 26:17 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:45 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 16:14 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Delia G | 62:07 | −0.16 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 20:35 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.11 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Owen Power D | 23:22 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.11 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 12:56 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 5:27 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 5:30 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:41 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:43 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 12:51 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 16:04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:48 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:27 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:27 | −0.17 | +0.16 | −0.36 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 17:58 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:02 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:28 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.30 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 61:46 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.