CBJ beat WSH 5–4. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Boone Jenner scored at 19:15 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Pheonix Copley allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:19 | WSH | Garnet Hathaway from Nic Dowd, Carl Hagelin | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:40 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Martin Fehérváry, Carl Hagelin | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 9:38 | CBJ | Patrik LainePP from Adam Boqvist, Jakub Voracek | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 12:42 | CBJ | Adam Boqvist from Max Domi, Gustav Nyquist | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 15:57 | WSH | Evgeny KuznetsovPP from Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson | 2–3 | 54% → 76% |
| P2 19:56 | CBJ | Patrik LainePP from Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3–3 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 2:40 | CBJ | Trey Fix-Wolansky from Jack Roslovic, Max Domi | 4–3 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 17:34 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP unassisted | 4–4 | 9% → 51% |
| P3 19:15 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Gustav Nyquist, Patrik Laine | 5–4 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Laine L | 17:39 | 2 | 1 | +1.43 | −0.00 | +1.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Boqvist D | 13:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.07 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trey Fix-Wolansky R | 5:23 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.04 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 22:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.13 | +0.53 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Max Domi C | 14:40 | 2 | +0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 14:07 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 22:49 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 6:32 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:25 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 9:20 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:19 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 18:29 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:22 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 26:21 | −0.14 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dean Kukan D | 14:33 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:07 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:16 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 16:29 | −0.70 | +0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | −0.97 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 16:58 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.07 | +0.65 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 20:18 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.15 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:28 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.10 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 14:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.11 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| Carl Hagelin L | 15:09 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 18:57 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Snively C | 12:26 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:52 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:49 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:37 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 16:43 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 7:57 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 16:50 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 16:00 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 7:44 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 23:33 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 24:01 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 19:25 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.57 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 16:46 | −0.45 |
| Pheonix Copley G | 42:40 | −2.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.