ARI beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Travis Boyd scored at 1:43 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:42 | DAL | Jani Hakanpää from Esa Lindell, Tyler Seguin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:48 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 2:58 | DAL | Miro HeiskanenPP from John Klingberg, Joe Pavelski | 0–3 | 89% → 95% |
| P3 3:43 | ARI | Anton Stralman from Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton | 1–3 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 7:20 | ARI | Shayne Gostisbehere unassisted | 2–3 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 11:58 | ARI | Barrett HaytonPP from Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–3 | 22% → 50% |
| OT 1:43 | ARI | Travis Boyd from Kyle Capobianco, Barrett Hayton | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:49 | 1 | 2 | +0.87 | −0.08 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.05 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.01 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anton Stralman D | 25:11 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 17:35 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.05 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 23:36 | +0.39 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:02 | +0.27 | +0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Smith C | 13:12 | +0.06 | +0.26 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 14:01 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 16:17 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 14:21 | −0.09 | +0.44 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:17 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cam Dineen D | 14:31 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 16:07 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 17:48 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:54 | −0.29 | +0.17 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:15 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jan Jenik C | 14:47 | −0.39 | +0.43 | −0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 13:04 | −0.66 | −0.04 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Harri Sateri G | 61:41 | +0.18 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jani Hakanpää D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.15 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:11 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.09 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.10 | +0.59 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 10:55 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:35 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 18:04 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Radulov R | 12:11 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 10:57 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 16:44 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 15:01 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:29 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 23:02 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 15:25 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 19:39 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.49 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 13:53 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 14:36 | −0.47 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Peterson C | 9:23 | −0.49 | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 17:18 | −0.57 | −0.38 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 61:32 | −0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.