CGY beat NSH 5–4 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Elias Lindholm scored at 2:01 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Dan Vladar allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:02 |  CGY | Dillon DubePP from Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:41 | NSH | Roman Josi from Philip Tomasino, Ryan Johansen | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:08 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 13:14 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Calle Jarnkrok, Oliver Kylington | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 0:30 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund | 2–3 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 2:03 | CGY | Noah Hanifin from Brett Ritchie, Milan Lucic | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 9:35 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene | 3–4 | 53% → 83% |
| P3 19:59 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau | 4–4 | 2% → 48% |
| OT 2:01 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Dube C | 14:22 | 2 | +1.56 | −0.01 | +1.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:59 | 1 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.24 | +0.92 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 16:44 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.23 | +0.43 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 24:03 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.15 | +0.59 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:02 | +0.18 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 22:10 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.30 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:04 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:36 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 14:59 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:59 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:00 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:49 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 10:37 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 11:34 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:29 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Oliver Kylington D | 16:54 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:52 | 2 | −0.41 | +0.21 | −0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 13:23 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 61:15 | −1.81 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:49 | 2 | +1.11 | −0.10 | +1.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 17:56 | 1 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.24 | +0.30 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Roman Josi D | 25:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.09 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:21 | 3 | +0.25 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 16:52 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 7:50 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 17:43 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 14:09 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 12:36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 6:29 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 13:10 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 9:28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 16:42 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:07 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:13 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 12:58 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 18:38 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:56 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 53:28 | −0.62 |
| David Rittich G | 8:33 | −1.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.