OTT beat NJD 5–4 in overtime. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drake Batherson scored at 3:17 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:43 |  OTT | Thomas ChabotPP from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 0:11 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Brady Tkachuk, Travis Hamonic | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 8:52 | NJD | Nolan Foote from Fabian Zetterlund, Reilly Walsh | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 16:41 | OTT | Tim StützlePP from Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P2 19:54 | NJD | Nolan Foote from Pavel Zacha, Ty Smith | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 6:34 | OTT | Tim StützleSH unassisted | 2–4 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 7:29 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Jesper Bratt | 3–4 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 10:15 | NJD | Yegor Sharangovich from Damon Severson | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 3:17 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Tim Stützle, Erik Brannstrom | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Foote L | 14:20 | 2 | +1.32 | +0.08 | +1.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:34 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.06 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Graves D | 25:06 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Walsh D | 14:23 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 12:13 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 8:36 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 16:48 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 16:21 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 15:00 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 21:25 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Geertsen L | 8:41 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:12 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:27 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.29 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 24:31 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.14 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 16:13 | −0.55 | +0.12 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:36 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.61 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:47 | −0.62 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 63:17 | −1.21 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 22:19 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.14 | +1.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 21:25 | 2 | 2 | +1.19 | −0.06 | +1.32 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 24:48 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.17 | +0.47 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 21:14 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.04 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 18:12 | +0.16 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 20:37 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 13:07 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 19:15 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 13:57 | +0.01 | +0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 8:41 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:58 | 3 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 14:38 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 7:49 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 14:50 | −0.32 | +0.20 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 15:55 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 17:33 | −0.42 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 9:17 | −0.51 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 63:17 | −0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.