SJS beat VGK 5–4 in a shootout. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Timo Meier scored on the power play at 19:59 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 2% to 48%. James Reimer saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:43 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Alexander Barabanov, Jaycob Megna | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:23 |  VGK | Chandler StephensonPP from Max Pacioretty, Alex Pietrangelo | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 7:46 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Shea Theodore | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 9:59 | VGK | William Carrier from Keegan Kolesar, Nicolas Roy | 1–3 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 18:55 | SJS | Nick Bonino from Jaycob Megna, Matt Nieto | 2–3 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 6:35 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from William Karlsson, Shea Theodore | 2–4 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 17:54 | SJS | Nick BoninoPP unassisted | 3–4 | 0% → 6% |
| P3 19:59 | SJS | Timo MeierPP from Logan Couture, Brent Burns | 4–4 | 2% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 14:52 | +1.15 | +0.22 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.05 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 18:15 | 2 | +1.12 | +0.14 | +1.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jaycob Megna D | 22:10 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 15:02 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 23:57 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.34 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 15:20 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 12:38 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:47 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jasper Weatherby C | 9:21 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 14:51 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 19:02 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Merkley D | 13:08 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Reedy C | 9:49 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:51 | −0.21 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sasha Chmelevski C | 11:32 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:32 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.36 | |
| Brent Burns D | 28:23 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 19:43 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 63:34 | +2.34 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Pacioretty L | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.37 | +0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| William Carrier L | 12:13 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.07 | +0.33 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 21:19 | +0.15 | +0.41 | −0.27 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:03 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 21:33 | +0.07 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:15 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.54 | −0.22 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:05 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:38 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:41 | 1 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.29 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 8:23 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.22 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 12:10 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:25 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:55 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 12:28 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 12:29 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 17:28 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:31 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 23:12 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 64:53 | −1.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.