STL beat ARI 5–4 in overtime. STL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Justin Faulk scored at 0:30 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:13 | STL | Justin Faulk from Nathan Walker, Logan Brown | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:51 | STL | Ivan Barbashev from Justin Faulk, Nick Leddy | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 16:20 | STL | Brandon SaadPP unassisted | 3–0 | 79% → 92% |
| P1 17:11 | ARI | Nate Smith from Anton Stralman, Michael Carcone | 3–1 | 8% → 21% |
| P2 2:56 | STL | Logan Brown from Dakota Joshua | 4–1 | 81% → 93% |
| P3 5:39 | ARI | Bokondji Imama from Alex Galchenyuk | 4–2 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 6:23 | ARI | Michael Carcone from Anton Stralman, Phil Kessel | 4–3 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 15:18 | ARI | J.J. Moser from Nick Schmaltz, Jan Jenik | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 0:30 | STL | Justin Faulk from Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 21:21 | 2 | 1 | +1.75 | +0.23 | +1.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Brown C | 13:05 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.27 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Brandon Saad L | 16:56 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.15 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:18 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.06 | +0.50 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 17:39 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.16 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:07 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:36 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 14:20 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:32 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.26 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:24 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 20:06 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:35 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Rosen D | 15:41 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:14 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:24 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 16:06 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 21:44 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:35 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.25 | −0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:17 | −1.86 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser D | 20:35 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.02 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bokondji Imama L | 5:42 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.04 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 15:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.07 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nate Smith C | 16:58 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.10 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 22:41 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 24:10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Jenik C | 9:58 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 15:32 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:58 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 15:30 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 19:05 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 15:31 | −0.21 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:37 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cam Dineen D | 16:12 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:01 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 19:59 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 13:01 | −0.49 | +0.05 | −0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 11:49 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Harri Sateri G | 60:30 | −1.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.