CGY beat VAN 6–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brett Ritchie scored at 5:50 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Thatcher Demko allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:44 |  CGY | Elias LindholmPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 3:00 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Calle Jarnkrok, Chris Tanev | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 18:46 |  VAN | Quinn Hughes from Vasily Podkolzin, J.T. Miller | 1–2 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 5:36 | VAN | Conor Garland from Tyler Myers, J.T. Miller | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 5:50 | CGY | Brett Ritchie from Chris Tanev, Trevor Lewis | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 13:33 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Elias Lindholm | 2–4 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 13:45 | CGY | Nikita Zadorov from Mikael Backlund | 2–5 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 17:35 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller | 3–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 18:21 | CGY | Johnny GaudreauEN from Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.78 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:25 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.18 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Conor Garland R | 19:21 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.10 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 15:47 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:34 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 16:25 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sheldon Dries C | 8:23 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 16:34 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 17:05 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 18:25 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 13:23 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 10:20 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 15:59 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 21:37 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 13:30 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 13:37 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 21:59 | 3 | −0.31 | +0.09 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Lockwood R | 8:12 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 56:41 | −2.38 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Dube C | 14:18 | 2 | +1.50 | −0.02 | +1.55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:44 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.05 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.10 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Brett Ritchie R | 11:19 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 21:21 | 3 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Oliver Kylington D | 19:36 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:49 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 13:19 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:15 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 12:09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:25 | 1 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:34 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:10 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:12 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:56 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:40 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.04 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | −0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.