BUF beat NJD 5–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Okposo scored short-handed at 11:53 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 46% to 68%. Andrew Hammond allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:53 | BUF | Kyle OkposoSH from Rasmus Dahlin, Craig Anderson | 1–0 | 46% → 68% |
| P2 12:40 | BUF | Alex TuchSH from Victor Olofsson | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 17:58 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Victor Olofsson | 3–0 | 88% → 97% |
| P2 19:52 | NJD | Jesper Boqvist from Michael McLeod, Dougie Hamilton | 3–1 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 4:59 | NJD | Nikita Okhotiuk from Janne Kuokkanen, Pavel Zacha | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 8:33 | BUF | Owen Power from Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson | 4–2 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 16:03 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Tage Thompson, Victor Olofsson | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power D | 22:21 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.06 | +0.84 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.10 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.11 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alex Tuch R | 13:36 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.04 | +0.49 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:43 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 15:34 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 13:30 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 15:25 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 12:57 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 11:28 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:16 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 19:40 | −0.25 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:44 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:41 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:24 | 3 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:09 | 2 | −0.54 | −0.14 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:00 | +1.33 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 15:54 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 15:22 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.13 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 19:17 | +0.28 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 19:35 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 12:35 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:44 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 13:31 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:16 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:29 | −0.09 | +0.28 | −0.38 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 12:42 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 11:22 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 13:35 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:34 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:38 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:27 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 21:22 | −0.46 | +0.14 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:25 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hammond G | 60:00 | −2.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.