SEA beat COL 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.3, SEA 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kole Lind scored at 1:12 of the first, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:12 |  SEA | Kole Lind from Will Borgen, Victor Rask | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:23 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Matty Beniers, Ryan Donato | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 14:44 | SEA | Yanni Gourde from Jared McCann, Karson Kuhlman | 0–3 | 84% → 92% |
| P1 17:37 | COL | Cale Makar from Nazem Kadri, J.T. Compher | 1–3 | 7% → 15% |
| P3 16:40 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–3 | 1% → 9% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 26:27 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.07 | +0.73 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:16 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 12:55 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 9:52 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 10:09 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 24:12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 11:16 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 13:41 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:28 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 10:14 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:31 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 9:45 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:20 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 17:09 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 23:26 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 18:36 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:02 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 58:46 | −0.64 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:30 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 21:57 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.15 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kole Lind R | 14:25 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.05 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:19 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 17:02 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 16:25 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 26:13 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:22 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:25 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 15:07 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 16:01 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 13:05 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 10:24 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 18:29 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 16:52 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 10:16 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 19:09 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 11:01 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:58 | +0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.