FLA beat NYI 3–2 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 5.4 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Aleksander Barkov scored at 0:20 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:56 |  NYI | Sebastian Aho from Andy Greene, Kieffer Bellows | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 14:12 |  FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Claude Giroux, Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 1:01 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel PageauPP from Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson | 1–2 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 16:02 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Radko Gudas, Jonathan Huberdeau | 2–2 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 0:20 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Jonathan Huberdeau, Gustav Forsling | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:39 | 3 | +2.47 | +0.21 | +2.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 11:28 | +0.34 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 15:42 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:57 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.21 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 15:38 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 15:40 | +0.02 | +0.33 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:46 | 3 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 20:20 | −0.03 | +0.21 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:24 | −0.03 | +0.48 | −0.75 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:07 | −0.11 | +0.16 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 10:11 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:44 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 14:54 | −0.16 | +0.19 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:46 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 12:14 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:10 | −0.34 | +0.28 | −0.61 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Mamin C | 9:52 | −0.37 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 17:32 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:10 | +0.81 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho D | 12:55 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.16 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:27 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.12 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 7:06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 10:30 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 19:11 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 18:13 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 19:31 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 24:24 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 15:02 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Kieffer Bellows L | 11:13 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 25:30 | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 16:47 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 16:43 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 6:47 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:47 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:55 | −0.45 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:04 | −0.54 | −0.44 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:24 | −0.66 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:20 | +1.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.