TOR beat PHI 5–2. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored on the power play at 13:39 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 54% to 75%. Martin Jones allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:35 | TOR | Timothy Liljegren from Alexander Kerfoot, William Nylander | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:07 | PHI | James van Riemsdyk from Keith Yandle, Travis Konecny | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:39 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Mitch Marner, John Tavares | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 19:35 | TOR | Jason Spezza from Mark Giordano, Wayne Simmonds | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 10:11 | TOR | David Kampf from Ilya Lyubushkin, Ilya Mikheyev | 1–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 17:24 | PHI | Ronnie Attard from Travis Konecny | 2–4 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 18:27 | TOR | Ilya MikheyevEN from Pierre Engvall, TJ Brodie | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Attard D | 17:26 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.19 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 15:54 | +0.31 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:54 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 15:29 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 18:57 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 13:50 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 13:29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 13:04 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Zamula D | 18:23 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 10:56 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 12:58 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 14:26 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 10:24 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:39 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 13:12 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:59 | −0.33 | +0.15 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 15:19 | −0.36 | +0.12 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 19:23 | −0.73 | −0.13 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 59:28 | −1.67 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Kampf C | 16:36 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.86 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 15:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Jason Spezza C | 13:21 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 12:40 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 17:17 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 18:35 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:08 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 11:40 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:13 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Holl D | 20:39 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 19:38 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 15:11 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:50 | 1 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:40 | −0.34 | −0.29 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 14:45 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:06 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Abruzzese C | 12:45 | −0.52 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 60:00 | +1.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.