MIN beat SJS 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 2.3, MIN 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jared Spurgeon scored at 1:05 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. James Reimer allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:04 | MIN | Dmitry Kulikov from Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:29 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Marcus Foligno | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 9:38 | SJS | Rudolfs Balcers from Thomas Bordeleau, Noah Gregor | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P2 1:19 | SJS | Matt Nieto from Nick Bonino, Brent Burns | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:37 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 11:11 | SJS | Noah Gregor from Brent Burns, Rudolfs Balcers | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 1:37 | SJS | Nick BoninoSH from Tomas Hertl, Nicolas Meloche | 4–3 | 47% → 73% |
| P3 8:54 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Jordie Benn, Frederick Gaudreau | 4–4 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 1:05 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 17:07 | 1 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.15 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 13:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.02 | +0.92 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Nieto L | 17:51 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.09 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 13:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.05 | +0.55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brent Burns D | 28:28 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:28 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:32 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jasper Weatherby C | 7:00 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Santeri Hatakka D | 11:44 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:39 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.37 | −0.04 | |
| Sasha Chmelevski C | 9:07 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 13:14 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nicolas Meloche D | 19:11 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Merkley D | 16:48 | −0.27 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:12 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 14:26 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:49 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Reedy C | 9:40 | −0.66 | +0.05 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 61:05 | −2.09 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:35 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.00 | +1.56 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:32 | 1 | 3 | +0.96 | +0.11 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.01 |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:59 | 1 | +0.93 | −0.17 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 15:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.21 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jordie Benn D | 13:15 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 15:58 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:43 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:47 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 10:11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:39 | 3 | −0.05 | +0.25 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:32 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:18 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:43 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:31 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:30 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:18 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:14 | −0.60 | −0.23 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:55 | −1.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.