TOR beat OTT 5–4 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Giordano scored at 3:26 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:14 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Brady Tkachuk, Michael Del Zotto | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 15:25 | OTT | Michael Del Zotto from Connor Brown, Josh Norris | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 2:57 | TOR | Kyle Clifford from Justin Holl, Mark Giordano | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 10:03 | OTT | Dylan Gambrell from Austin Watson, Erik Brannstrom | 1–3 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 11:21 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Mark Giordano | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 18:33 | TOR | Mitch Marner from TJ Brodie | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 6:10 | OTT | Tim Stützle unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 10:06 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 3:26 | TOR | Mark Giordano from William Nylander, John Tavares | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Giordano D | 21:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.29 | +0.34 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:09 | 2 | +0.86 | +0.24 | +0.75 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 16:22 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.18 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 19:47 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:01 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 6:32 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.09 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:46 | +0.27 | +0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 23:49 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.17 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 18:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:14 | +0.18 | +0.34 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:10 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:30 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 7:21 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 7:04 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:27 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.24 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| David Kampf C | 15:57 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:07 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:42 | −0.42 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Erik Kallgren G | 63:26 | −1.14 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Del Zotto D | 19:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.22 | +0.46 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tim Stützle C | 21:44 | 2 | +0.30 | −0.36 | +0.64 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.14 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:09 | +0.19 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 21:54 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Austin Watson L | 12:46 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Victor Mete D | 2:42 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 24:43 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 5:14 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 5:46 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:44 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:14 | −0.17 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:55 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.26 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Formenton L | 21:29 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 20:37 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.19 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 17:19 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 21:30 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:26 | −0.48 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 63:26 | −1.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.