WPG beat SEA 4–3. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 9:05 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:47 | WPG | Morgan Barron from Jansen Harkins | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 5:55 | SEA | Alexander WennbergPP from Jared McCann, Matty Beniers | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 12:24 | SEA | Daniel Sprong from Derrick Pouliot, Dennis Cholowski | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:19 | SEA | Riley Sheahan from Alexander Wennberg, Joonas Donskoi | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 4:49 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Paul Stastny | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 7:16 | WPG | Dominic Toninato from Jansen Harkins, Morgan Barron | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 9:05 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mason Appleton | 3–4 | 52% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 15:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.09 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Riley Sheahan C | 16:27 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 16:38 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.07 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dennis Cholowski D | 23:15 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derrick Pouliot D | 21:16 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 19:28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 13:32 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 12:28 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 17:51 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 13:15 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 18:15 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 13:25 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 14:31 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 14:25 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:38 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:41 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kole Lind R | 16:03 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 15:07 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 59:02 | −0.93 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Toninato C | 11:59 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.05 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 13:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:11 | +0.32 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 14:59 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:29 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 12:45 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 13:13 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 19:32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 20:11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:29 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 14:29 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 16:15 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 18:12 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:05 | −0.54 | −0.02 | −0.54 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 59:49 | +0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.