CHI beat SJS 5–4 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 3.0, CHI 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jaycob Megna scored at 16:35 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 9% to 49%. James Reimer allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:18 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:45 | SJS | Timo Meier from Tomas Hertl, Brent Burns | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 13:35 | CHI | Taylor RaddyshPP from Seth Jones, Patrick Kane | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 15:53 | SJS | Scott Reedy from Matt Nieto, Sasha Chmelevski | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:42 | CHI | Calvin de Haan from Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat | 2–3 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 4:07 | CHI | Dylan Strome from Seth Jones, Alex DeBrincat | 2–4 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 5:40 | SJS | Rudolfs Balcers from Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson | 3–4 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 16:35 | SJS | Jaycob Megna from Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl | 4–4 | 9% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaycob Megna D | 20:09 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.28 | +0.74 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Reedy C | 10:28 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 22:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.19 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 18:53 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.06 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 6:53 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 14:52 | +0.02 | +0.24 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 3:01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 28:02 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Meloche D | 14:42 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 15:00 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sasha Chmelevski C | 13:46 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:46 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 14:13 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 23:11 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.30 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 19:16 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 14:26 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:34 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.22 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Logan Couture C | 23:24 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 65:00 | −1.22 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 20:07 | 1 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.13 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 |
| Calvin de Haan D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.03 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 24:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.55 | +0.03 | +0.61 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.36 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 23:25 | 3 | +0.40 | +0.13 | −0.81 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.05 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 17:18 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.07 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 21:47 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 16:46 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 10:19 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 8:46 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 12:20 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 13:49 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 15:26 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 12:15 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 12:37 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 19:19 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 28:45 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 17:47 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.30 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 16:26 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 64:57 | +0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.