NJD beat DAL 3–1. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nico Hischier scored at 18:49 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Nico Daws saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 13:31 |  DAL | Ryan SuterPP from Vladislav Namestnikov, Jamie Benn | 0–1 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 4:26 | NJD | Ty Smith from Nico Hischier, Fabian Zetterlund | 1–1 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 18:49 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Kevin Bahl, Fabian Zetterlund | 2–1 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 18:59 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Jesper Boqvist, Damon Severson | 3–1 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Smith D | 14:14 | 1 | +1.22 | −0.02 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Pavel Zacha C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.12 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 15:48 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 14:45 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 17:12 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:03 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 25:36 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:26 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 9:02 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 18:34 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 21:21 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:10 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 24:45 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 5:19 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 9:41 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 13:05 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:53 | −0.36 | +0.09 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Daws G | 59:58 | +1.28 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Suter D | 23:29 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.35 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 12:18 | +0.30 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 22:22 | +0.22 | +0.27 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 24:40 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 18:52 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 13:08 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 12:53 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 21:44 | +0.04 | +0.29 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 13:20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:49 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:25 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Peterson C | 7:00 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 12:38 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:43 | −0.20 | +0.23 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:11 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 15:24 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.20 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marián Studenic R | 9:39 | −0.35 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:02 | −0.64 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 59:23 | −0.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.