CBJ beat DET 5–4 in overtime. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jack Roslovic scored at 3:19 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:14 |  CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Zach Werenski | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 13:41 | DET | Jakub Vrana unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:21 | DET | Sam Gagner from Marc Staal, Mitchell Stephens | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:01 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Zach Werenski, Jakub Voracek | 2–2 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 4:04 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Patrik Laine | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 12:34 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Jack Roslovic, Gustav Nyquist | 4–2 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 15:35 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Lucas Raymond, Jordan Oesterle | 4–3 | 1% → 12% |
| P3 16:33 | DET | Jakub Vrana from Pius Suter | 4–4 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 3:19 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Gustav Nyquist, Zach Werenski | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic C | 24:45 | 3 | 1 | +2.06 | +0.20 | +1.89 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Justin Danforth R | 16:50 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.01 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:23 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 16:16 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 24:04 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.43 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 3:45 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 4:38 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:42 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Meyer R | 5:16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 5:28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 16:30 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 15:58 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 19:55 | −0.19 | +0.24 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 25:30 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 21:27 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 16:18 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 22:19 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 31:48 | 3 | −0.41 | −0.25 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 63:19 | −0.20 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Vrana L | 14:24 | 2 | +1.37 | +0.07 | +1.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:48 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.04 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 12:42 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.04 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pius Suter C | 18:04 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.50 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 20:06 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 10:22 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 25:27 | −0.01 | +0.32 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 20:08 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 13:10 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 17:36 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 7:55 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 15:36 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 20:01 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 16:45 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 19:04 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:58 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 15:38 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:08 | −1.26 | −0.37 | −0.69 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 63:19 | −1.77 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.