STL beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Robert Thomas scored at 1:27 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:36 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 18:23 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Tyson Jost | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 10:40 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 0:18 | MIN | Jake Middleton from Jared Spurgeon, Joel Eriksson Ek | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 4:16 | STL | Justin Faulk from Nick Leddy | 3–2 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 10:28 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Ivan Barbashev | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 1:27 | STL | Robert Thomas from Vladimir Tarasenko, Colton Parayko | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 19:10 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 19:27 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.14 | +0.32 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:08 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.21 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 14:55 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 13:23 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:35 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:13 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:57 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:53 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 16:46 | +0.03 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:42 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 21:59 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 14:21 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:47 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:45 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:39 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:56 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 61:27 | −1.45 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 19:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Justin Faulk D | 24:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.14 | +0.45 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:36 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.21 | +0.42 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:35 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 20:48 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:01 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.32 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:33 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 22:32 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Brown C | 5:18 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 4:36 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 17:44 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 16:10 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 7:49 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:43 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 21:10 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 10:38 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 18:02 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 14:05 | −0.53 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 61:27 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.