CBJ beat PHI 4–2. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Justin Danforth scored at 13:16 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 49% to 84%. Elvis Merzlikins saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:38 | CBJ | Brendan Gaunce from Carson Meyer, Eric Robinson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 13:23 | CBJ | Carson Meyer from Zach Werenski, Eric Robinson | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 17:35 |  PHI | Noah Cates from Patrick Brown | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 13:16 | PHI | James van Riemsdyk from Ronnie Attard, Kevin Hayes | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 13:16 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Jake Bean, Sean Kuraly | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
| P3 19:40 | CBJ | Sean KuralyEN from Cole Sillinger, Gustav Nyquist | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Meyer R | 9:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Danforth R | 17:22 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 9:10 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.04 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Bean D | 19:00 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 24:31 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:10 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 13:13 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 13:17 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:50 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:10 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 12:24 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:43 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 18:29 | 1 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 16:23 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 13:53 | −0.33 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 14:13 | 2 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 23:40 | −0.37 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 14:22 | −0.46 | +0.12 | −0.59 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | +2.17 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cates L | 12:32 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.07 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 18:38 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 20:11 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 22:00 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Patrick Brown C | 10:21 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 10:47 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 10:38 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 18:46 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 25:07 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 17:02 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 13:38 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 11:26 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ronnie Attard D | 14:51 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 19:12 | −0.22 | +0.15 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 16:30 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:34 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 15:02 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 18:58 | −0.66 | +0.21 | −0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 57:47 | −0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.