STL beat CGY 6–4. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nathan Walker scored at 18:04 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:54 |  STL | Robert Thomas from Justin Faulk, Vladimir Tarasenko | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:47 | CGY | Brett Ritchie from Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:49 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Mikael Backlund, Erik Gudbranson | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:31 | STL | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Brayden Schenn | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 13:35 | STL | Justin Faulk from David Perron, Brandon Saad | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 10:43 | CGY | Noah Hanifin unassisted | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 18:04 | STL | Nathan Walker from Robert Thomas, Nick Leddy | 4–3 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 19:05 | STL | Ivan BarbashevEN from Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:22 | CGY | Dillon DubePP from Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk | 5–4 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:55 | STL | Brandon SaadEN from Pavel Buchnevich | 6–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 23:00 | 1 | 2 | +0.34 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| David Perron L | 16:44 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:50 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.07 | +0.28 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:14 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.11 | −0.13 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 11:07 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.13 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.44 | +0.41 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Brandon Saad L | 18:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:11 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 7:11 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 8:01 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:46 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 22:04 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 8:19 | −0.23 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:21 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:18 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:28 | −0.25 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:51 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:53 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.53 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:00 | +0.33 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Ritchie R | 10:59 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.31 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 13:14 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.06 | +0.70 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.14 | +0.34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:32 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.14 | +0.31 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:55 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +0.14 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:56 | +0.19 | +0.30 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:22 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.26 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:44 | +0.14 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 11:41 | +0.10 | +0.32 | −0.25 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:07 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.12 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 14:53 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:56 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 19:54 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:42 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.19 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 14:46 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:05 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:41 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.13 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 19:49 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:20 | −1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.