COL beat PIT 3–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Devon Toews scored at 15:34 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 51% to 89%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:59 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Andre Burakovsky, Nathan MacKinnon | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 14:46 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 15:06 | COL | Nicolas Aube-Kubel from Alex Newhook, Nico Sturm | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 15:07 | PIT | Mike Matheson from Jake Guentzel | 2–2 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 15:34 | COL | Devon Toews from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen | 2–3 | 51% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Matheson D | 20:17 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.17 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:04 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.03 | +0.41 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:20 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 6:04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Angello C | 6:34 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:27 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 7:51 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Friedman D | 13:08 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 14:21 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 18:57 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:45 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:56 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:52 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:33 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 17:50 | −0.39 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:51 | −0.43 | −0.32 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:21 | −0.54 | −0.36 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 21:21 | −0.81 | −0.06 | −0.72 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 58:28 | −0.14 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Toews D | 28:31 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.18 | +0.62 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:39 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.06 | +0.38 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Josh Manson D | 16:22 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 23:04 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 15:09 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 28:19 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:47 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 11:06 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 8:40 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 11:40 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:10 | −0.09 | +0.19 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 14:55 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:40 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:53 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 20:39 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 10:03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:02 | −0.40 | +0.13 | −0.56 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +0.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.