FLA beat NJD 7–6 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Gustav Forsling scored at 1:45 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:25 | NJD | Yegor Sharangovich unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:42 | NJD | Jack Hughes unassisted | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 9:02 |  FLA | Ben Chiarot unassisted | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P2 2:00 | NJD | Yegor Sharangovich from Dawson Mercer | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 2:45 | NJD | Janne Kuokkanen from Andreas Johnsson, Ty Smith | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 11:17 | FLA | Radko Gudas from Brandon Montour | 2–4 | 4% → 11% |
| P2 14:44 | NJD | Yegor SharangovichSH from Nico Hischier | 2–5 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 16:08 | NJD | Andreas Johnsson from Janne Kuokkanen, Jesper Boqvist | 2–6 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 5:34 | FLA | Brandon Montour from Anthony Duclair, Mason Marchment | 3–6 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 7:03 | FLA | Gustav Forsling unassisted | 4–6 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 15:23 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau | 5–6 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 18:36 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau | 6–6 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 1:45 | FLA | Gustav Forsling from Sam Bennett | 7–6 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:39 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.15 | +1.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:27 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.19 | +1.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 19:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:24 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 16:23 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.02 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 19:12 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.24 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:53 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 10:27 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:57 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 17:25 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 14:58 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Mamin C | 7:59 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 8:58 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 13:39 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 13:01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:34 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 15:59 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.08 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:22 | −0.52 | +0.30 | −0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 20:38 | +0.39 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 40:00 | −3.62 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 22:13 | 3 | +2.15 | −0.24 | +2.26 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 11:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 10:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.02 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Hughes C | 21:22 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.24 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 14:10 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:06 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:41 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 11:20 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 12:01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 21:17 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Smith D | 13:31 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:32 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 16:42 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:11 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:24 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:24 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Damon Severson D | 25:03 | −0.51 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hammond G | 61:45 | −2.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.