OTT beat DET 5–2. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Josh Norris scored on the power play at 2:25 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Mads Sogaard saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:07 | OTT | Austin WatsonSH from Mathieu Joseph | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P2 2:18 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Jake Walman | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 2:25 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Erik Brannstrom, Drake Batherson | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 3:36 | OTT | Mathieu Joseph from Tyler Ennis, Colin White | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 13:19 | OTT | Mathieu Joseph from Tim Stützle | 4–1 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 13:59 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin | 4–2 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 16:05 | OTT | Mathieu JosephEN unassisted | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Watson L | 11:55 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.80 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:38 | 3 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.15 | +0.59 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Ennis R | 12:39 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 15:39 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.33 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 15:30 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 22:21 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 13:35 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 18:24 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:21 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 15:25 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 19:46 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 14:48 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 18:04 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:24 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 22:56 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 11:56 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 17:31 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mads Sogaard G | 60:00 | +2.05 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:17 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.20 | +0.77 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Walman D | 18:53 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 17:52 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 12:50 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.38 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:12 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 18:41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:57 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 18:47 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 13:24 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 12:30 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 15:21 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taro Hirose L | 13:36 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:06 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 14:31 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 23:32 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:00 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 13:46 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 17:20 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 58:49 | −1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.