ARI beat SJS 5–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jan Jenik scored at 7:11 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Karel Vejmelka saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:15 | SJS | Scott ReedyPP from John Leonard, Ryan Merkley | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:46 | ARI | Nick Ritchie from Nick Schmaltz, Anton Stralman | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 8:33 | ARI | Jan Jenik from Phil Kessel | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 14:07 | SJS | Brent Burns from Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 7:11 | ARI | Jan Jenik from Phil Kessel, Anton Stralman | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 17:02 | ARI | Barrett Hayton from Travis Boyd | 2–4 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 19:14 | ARI | Nick SchmaltzEN unassisted | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 21:51 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.18 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Reedy C | 11:09 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.04 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jaycob Megna D | 21:39 | +0.32 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:56 | +0.12 | +0.21 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 15:53 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:27 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Sasha Chmelevski C | 12:45 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 19:17 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:46 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Merkley D | 16:11 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Pederson C | 10:40 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 17:08 | −0.13 | +0.15 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 16:31 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:55 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| John Leonard L | 13:54 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 9:42 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 19:03 | −0.83 | −0.06 | −0.72 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 59:10 | −1.37 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Jenik C | 14:19 | 2 | +1.21 | +0.02 | +1.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:36 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 13:47 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:57 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 22:03 | 2 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 14:41 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 15:16 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Capobianco D | 15:39 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Dineen D | 19:41 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 15:37 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:51 | 1 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:05 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 22:10 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:57 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 18:02 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:33 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 23:05 | −0.34 | −0.21 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 9:44 | −0.48 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +1.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.