NSH beat OTT 4–1. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Michael McCarron scored at 18:14 of the second, moving NSH’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Juuse Saros saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:53 |  OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Tim Stützle, Josh Norris | 1–0 | 51% → 63% |
| P1 19:21 | NSH | Michael McCarronSH from Mattias Ekholm, Alexandre Carrier | 1–1 | 34% → 52% |
| P2 18:14 | NSH | Michael McCarron from Mattias Ekholm, Nick Cousins | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 10:07 | NSH | Tanner Jeannot from Yakov Trenin, Mattias Ekholm | 1–3 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 19:56 | NSH | Matt DucheneEN from Filip Forsberg, Alexandre Carrier | 1–4 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:16 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.19 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 17:16 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 15:04 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 15:09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 19:32 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 8:34 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 15:13 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 14:11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 21:18 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:19 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 10:01 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 20:55 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 22:09 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.25 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.37 | −0.06 | |
| Alex Formenton L | 13:05 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:25 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 21:51 | −0.49 | +0.22 | −0.54 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 17:48 | −0.58 | −0.07 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 57:38 | −0.29 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McCarron C | 13:03 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.12 | +1.61 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:47 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.04 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 10:01 | +0.24 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:43 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 12:44 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Davies D | 10:27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:15 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 11:40 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 16:31 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 21:03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 15:15 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:13 | 3 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 27:29 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 12:20 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:46 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:34 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 15:37 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 16:21 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | +2.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.