NYI beat CBJ 4–3. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Josh Bailey scored at 15:09 of the first, moving NYI’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:20 | CBJ | Vladislav Gavrikov from Patrik Laine, Andrew Peeke | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:47 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 15:09 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:47 | NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Brock Nelson, Anders Lee | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 9:10 | NYI | Zach Parise from Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal | 4–1 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 13:32 | CBJ | Vladislav Gavrikov from Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine | 4–2 | 4% → 14% |
| P3 4:30 | CBJ | Oliver Bjorkstrand unassisted | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bailey R | 16:24 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.06 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:09 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.20 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 19:23 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.16 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 22:12 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 20:22 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 11:17 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Grant Hutton D | 11:57 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:19 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:36 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 14:53 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 15:59 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 15:15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:44 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 23:50 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:06 | −0.41 | +0.08 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 8:56 | −0.45 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:50 | 2 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 60:00 | +0.32 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 25:24 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.09 | +1.51 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 16:29 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 18:29 | +0.17 | +0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 10:21 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dean Kukan D | 17:03 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 13:25 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 12:18 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 23:05 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 7:27 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 17:30 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 8:08 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:42 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:10 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 21:41 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 20:24 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:49 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 16:10 | −0.34 | +0.22 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 23:03 | 2 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 57:43 | −1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.