NYR beat BUF 5–4 in overtime. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: K'Andre Miller scored at 2:02 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:59 | NYR | Frank Vatrano from Chris Kreider | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:17 | NYR | Frank Vatrano unassisted | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 18:12 | BUF | Rasmus Asplund from Mattias Samuelsson, Casey Mittelstadt | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 2:06 | BUF | Will Butcher from Peyton Krebs, Vinnie Hinostroza | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:48 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Dahlin | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 11:46 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Filip Chytil, Jonny Brodzinski | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 3:52 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Jacob Trouba, Andrew Copp | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 13:07 | BUF | Jeff SkinnerPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt | 4–4 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 2:02 | NYR | K'Andre Miller from Alexis Lafrenière, Andrew Copp | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:39 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:33 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.12 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Butcher D | 12:48 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.12 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:09 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.21 | +0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:19 | 2 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 17:21 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 14:21 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:31 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:45 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 17:03 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 15:51 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 16:27 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:25 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.53 | +0.41 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 17:25 | −0.43 | −0.25 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:17 | −0.52 | −0.34 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 24:57 | −0.60 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 62:02 | −1.28 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:19 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.81 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:10 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.58 | +0.31 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 14:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.20 | +0.27 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:07 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.22 | +0.38 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:42 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.56 | −0.29 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:34 | +0.36 | +0.50 | −0.23 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 19:03 | 2 | +0.31 | +0.26 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 16:21 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 10:37 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 15:11 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:43 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 24:25 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:59 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 10:02 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 5:34 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 14:27 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 14:08 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 62:02 | −2.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.