SEA beat ANA 4–3. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jordan Eberle scored at 18:18 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 50% to 94%. John Gibson allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:00 |  SEA | Ryan Donato from Austin Czarnik, Morgan Geekie | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:12 | ANA | Isac Lundeström from Jakob Silfverberg | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 14:41 | SEA | Vince Dunn from Yanni Gourde, Calle Jarnkrok | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 5:34 | ANA | Isac Lundeström from Derek Grant, Troy Terry | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:34 | ANA | Rickard RakellPP from Jamie Drysdale, Trevor Zegras | 2–3 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 13:35 | SEA | Ryan Donato from Yanni Gourde | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 18:18 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Riley Sheahan, Mark Giordano | 4–3 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Donato C | 14:26 | 2 | +1.42 | −0.04 | +1.47 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 20:17 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.13 | +0.87 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:48 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.16 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 21:46 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 17:37 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:43 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 16:46 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:42 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 11:53 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 11:01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 21:20 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 10:22 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 11:54 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:59 | −0.21 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:02 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 16:40 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 15:25 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 18:20 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 60:00 | −0.05 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:53 | 2 | +1.95 | +0.34 | +1.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 13:54 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.09 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:58 | +0.28 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:01 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.30 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 15:14 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sam Steel C | 9:50 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 15:11 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 19:11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 19:38 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 14:48 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 13:02 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:49 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 21:08 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 13:39 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 20:28 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:34 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Buddy Robinson R | 9:27 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:08 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.26 | −0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:07 | −2.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.