PHI beat STL 5–2. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexey Toropchenko scored at 16:00 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 13% to 29%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:37 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Kevin Connauton, Hayden Hodgson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:51 | PHI | Patrick Brown from Cam York, Owen Tippett | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 1:47 |  STL | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 12:04 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Kevin Hayes, Cam York | 3–1 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 16:00 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Logan Brown | 3–2 | 13% → 29% |
| P3 11:34 | PHI | Hayden Hodgson from Kevin Hayes | 4–2 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 17:20 | PHI | Joel FarabeeEN from James van Riemsdyk | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Konecny R | 17:03 | 2 | +1.64 | −0.14 | +1.81 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Brown C | 15:05 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Hayden Hodgson R | 16:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.21 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Travis Sanheim D | 19:35 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 9:07 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 21:49 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Willman C | 13:01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 18:13 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 17:58 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:52 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 20:33 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 20:13 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 20:10 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 10:52 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 11:08 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:50 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 13:21 | −0.35 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 16:12 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.04 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 60:00 | +1.17 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:13 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.24 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:28 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.02 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 16:44 | +0.33 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 16:24 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 12:34 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 23:25 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:15 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 8:23 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 22:02 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:23 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 16:39 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 7:52 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:37 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.29 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| David Perron L | 18:02 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.20 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:59 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:27 | −0.32 | +0.23 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:33 | −0.32 | +0.11 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 15:56 | −0.35 | +0.07 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:04 | −1.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.