NYI beat OTT 3–0. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Scott Mayfield scored at 9:49 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Semyon Varlamov saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 9:49 |  NYI | Scott Mayfield from Brock Nelson, Anders Lee | 0–1 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 17:25 | NYI | Anders Lee from Casey Cizikas, Brock Nelson | 0–2 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 19:14 | NYI | Zach PariseEN from Brock Nelson, Scott Mayfield | 0–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Del Zotto D | 17:55 | +0.19 | +0.24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 17:23 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 17:14 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 11:49 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:00 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 18:40 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 19:11 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 10:55 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 10:17 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:43 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:31 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 19:27 | −0.26 | +0.19 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 18:24 | −0.26 | +0.11 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 22:57 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 19:49 | −0.32 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 16:43 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:49 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 12:02 | −0.50 | −0.15 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 58:11 | +0.49 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.18 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anders Lee C | 16:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.08 | +0.58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andy Greene D | 19:31 | +0.19 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:00 | 3 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Matt Martin L | 10:02 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:24 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 17:19 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:12 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 20:38 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 10:53 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 16:51 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:30 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 17:48 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 18:28 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:49 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 18:35 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 13:54 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:37 | +2.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.