SEA beat ARI 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (SEA 2.6, ARI 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Carson Soucy scored at 17:18 of the second, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 71%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:11 | ARI | Nick SchmaltzPP from Clayton Keller, Shayne Gostisbehere | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 8:29 | SEA | Carson Soucy from Jordan Eberle, Alexander Wennberg | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:13 | ARI | Nick Ritchie from Loui Eriksson | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:39 | SEA | Daniel SprongPP from Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 17:18 | SEA | Carson Soucy from Ryan Donato, Morgan Geekie | 3–2 | 48% → 71% |
| P3 12:38 | SEA | Morgan Geekie from Jared McCann, Kole Lind | 4–2 | 83% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Soucy D | 18:42 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.04 | +1.55 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:24 | 1 | +1.03 | −0.04 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.05 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Will Borgen D | 15:11 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 12:14 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:27 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 25:29 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 16:32 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 25:04 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:37 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kole Lind R | 10:53 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 15:38 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 8:42 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:21 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.40 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:43 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 15:50 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 13:05 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:52 | +0.79 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Ritchie L | 9:21 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:44 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.59 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 24:29 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 12:53 | +0.24 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 24:21 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 14:49 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 21:00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 11:52 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 25:46 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Dineen D | 14:17 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 13:41 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 13:01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 13:07 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:58 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:30 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:18 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 21:00 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 19:04 | −0.40 | +0.22 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 57:55 | −1.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.