TOR beat NJD 3–2. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Pierre Engvall scored short-handed at 15:18 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 49% to 88%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:03 | NJD | Damon SeversonPP from Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier | 1–0 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 12:30 | TOR | Ilya MikheyevSH from Alexander Kerfoot | 1–1 | 30% → 52% |
| P2 13:56 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 2–1 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 14:54 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 15:18 | TOR | Pierre EngvallSH unassisted | 2–3 | 49% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 22:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.28 | +0.36 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:29 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 28:13 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.26 | +0.39 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 5:15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:04 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:02 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 20:57 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 22:05 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.31 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 13:26 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:03 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 9:06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:16 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:40 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:55 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 11:51 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 8:15 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:57 | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 16:18 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Daws G | 58:22 | +0.06 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:00 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.16 | +0.65 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:42 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.15 | +0.79 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:10 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.05 | +0.29 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Kampf C | 14:24 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 20:20 | +0.07 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 16:48 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 22:43 | +0.06 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 14:27 | +0.05 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:52 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 18:35 | +0.01 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:30 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 5:53 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:49 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 8:21 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 18:46 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:35 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 7:22 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | +0.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.