SJS beat ARI 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (ARI 2.4, SJS 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Noah Gregor scored at 16:15 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:20 | SJS | Nick Bonino from Andrew Cogliano, Noah Gregor | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 18:00 | ARI | Phil Kessel from Lawson Crouse | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 15:09 | ARI | Lawson CrousePP from Phil Kessel, Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–1 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 15:31 | SJS | Timo Meier from Alexander Barabanov, Jaycob Megna | 2–2 | 12% → 51% |
| P3 16:15 | SJS | Noah Gregor from Logan Couture | 2–3 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 19:10 | SJS | Rudolfs BalcersEN unassisted | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Kessel R | 14:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.18 | +0.78 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.22 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Dysin Mayo D | 22:29 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 25:46 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.29 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Nash C | 12:55 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 21:57 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 10:41 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 17:52 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 12:28 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:12 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:04 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 11:52 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 19:00 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Dineen D | 14:03 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:27 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 22:53 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:29 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 12:19 | −0.63 | −0.07 | −0.57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 59:00 | −1.02 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gregor L | 15:12 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.03 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Timo Meier R | 19:43 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.17 | +0.80 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 17:08 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.13 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brent Burns D | 24:17 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Meloche D | 15:47 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 12:37 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 9:56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 15:43 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jaycob Megna D | 19:47 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 12:20 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Reedy C | 10:12 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 20:53 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.48 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 8:33 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:07 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 16:59 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 20:23 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:28 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:40 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | +0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.