WPG beat CHI 6–4. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jansen Harkins scored at 11:13 of the second, moving WPG’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:14 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:13 | CHI | Jonathan Toews from Taylor Raddysh, Dominik Kubalik | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 1:36 | CHI | Dylan Strome from Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:15 | WPG | Jansen Harkins from Dylan DeMelo, Andrew Copp | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 11:13 | WPG | Jansen Harkins from Andrew Copp, Evgeny Svechnikov | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 17:36 | WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler | 4–2 | 72% → 88% |
| P2 19:36 | WPG | Josh Morrissey from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 5–2 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 3:25 | CHI | Taylor RaddyshPP from Patrick Kane, Dylan Strome | 5–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 13:00 | CHI | Philipp Kurashev from Sam Lafferty, Seth Jones | 5–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 18:51 | WPG | Blake WheelerEN from Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp | 6–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jansen Harkins C | 15:52 | 2 | +1.52 | +0.11 | +1.43 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 25:30 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.04 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:14 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.35 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 21:29 | 1 | 3 | +0.45 | −0.33 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:06 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:23 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 15:10 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic Toninato C | 4:39 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:50 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 16:05 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 19:09 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Adam Brooks C | 4:07 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 18:07 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:16 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 4:06 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:03 | 3 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 21:42 | 1 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.63 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | −0.02 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Kurashev C | 13:02 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 20:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.09 | +0.41 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 |
| Jonathan Toews C | 15:47 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.04 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 15:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.17 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Riley Stillman D | 15:42 | +0.18 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 29:24 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.27 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 21:01 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 15:10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 7:54 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 22:51 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 19:01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 10:24 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 9:14 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 24:28 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:06 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.12 | −0.44 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 14:38 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.08 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 12:49 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 58:10 | −2.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.