NYR beat CAR 2–0. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 6.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Chris Kreider scored at 15:39 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 6.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:39 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Jacob Trouba, Alexis Lafrenière | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 19:18 | NYR | Frank VatranoEN from Mika Zibanejad | 2–0 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kreider L | 16:15 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.30 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dryden Hunt L | 10:20 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:00 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:11 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 14:54 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:18 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 10:59 | −0.37 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 12:19 | −0.39 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:39 | −0.40 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:30 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:32 | −0.44 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 12:06 | −0.53 | −0.39 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 18:18 | −0.58 | −0.21 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:58 | −0.59 | −0.61 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 24:05 | −0.60 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 14:00 | −0.61 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 13:53 | −0.77 | −0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +6.46 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Pesce D | 19:24 | +0.36 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 19:55 | +0.31 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:09 | +0.20 | +0.34 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:35 | +0.17 | +0.23 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:11 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:30 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 9:14 | +0.10 | +0.46 | −0.14 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 14:36 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:54 | +0.09 | +0.49 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 15:53 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:22 | +0.07 | +0.31 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:04 | +0.02 | +0.36 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 11:12 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 11:16 | −0.14 | +0.17 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:38 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:52 | −0.22 | +0.40 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 17:41 | −0.23 | +0.36 | −0.44 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:39 | −0.29 | +0.36 | −0.80 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 58:57 | +0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.