PIT beat STL 3–2 in a shootout. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ivan Barbashev scored at 1:49 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 26% to 52%. Ville Husso saved 5.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:42 | PIT | Chad Ruhwedel from Marcus Pettersson, Radim Zohorna | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 10:52 | PIT | Mike Matheson from Kasperi Kapanen, John Marino | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 16:55 | STL | David Perron from Ivan Barbashev, Colton Parayko | 2–1 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 1:49 | STL | Ivan Barbashev from Brandon Saad | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 19:24 | +1.13 | +0.25 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +1.05 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 12:02 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.25 | +0.35 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 12:30 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.18 | +0.40 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:22 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 14:07 | +0.20 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 9:05 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 22:27 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.28 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:16 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 7:59 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:52 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 11:40 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 19:38 | −0.17 | +0.18 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:38 | −0.41 | +0.28 | −0.51 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:03 | −0.50 | +0.35 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:03 | −0.58 | +0.45 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.36 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:21 | −0.67 | +0.31 | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 80:01 | +2.91 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.08 | +0.42 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Brandon Saad L | 14:26 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Logan Brown C | 3:57 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 6:01 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 5:27 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:17 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 13:43 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:09 | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 25:46 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:43 | −0.23 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 17:12 | −0.25 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 34:05 | −0.44 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 22:17 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 20:47 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.11 | +0.31 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.36 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 23:18 | −0.68 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 23:48 | −0.79 | −0.40 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:47 | −0.83 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 24:00 | −0.85 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 80:01 | +5.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.