FLA beat SJS 3–2 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Frank Vatrano scored at 1:11 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:19 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 11:21 |  FLA | Jonathan HuberdeauSH unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 46% |
| P1 13:58 | SJS | Nicolas Meloche from Tomas Hertl, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 3:29 | FLA | Frank Vatrano from Noel Acciari | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 1:11 | FLA | Frank Vatrano from Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Vatrano R | 8:56 | 2 | +1.69 | +0.10 | +1.61 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:14 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.21 | +0.54 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Petteri Lindbohm D | 15:58 | +0.20 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 24:12 | +0.18 | +0.28 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.42 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patric Hornqvist R | 9:36 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 14:37 | +0.09 | +0.38 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 17:26 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 19:20 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 10:03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 10:38 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 13:54 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:50 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 19:46 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 14:51 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:34 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 14:11 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.39 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:43 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 61:11 | +0.55 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Meloche D | 13:02 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.27 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 21:43 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.17 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 14:38 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Reedy C | 8:49 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 26:16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 11:10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 18:25 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 15:20 | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:49 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Leonard L | 11:45 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 12:36 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:36 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 5:25 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:43 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 16:21 | −0.39 | −0.20 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 20:47 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 18:15 | −0.51 | −0.06 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:10 | −0.56 | −0.18 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:54 | −0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.