EDM beat DET 7–5. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.3, EDM 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Warren Foegele scored at 14:35 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Mikko Koskinen allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:59 | EDM | Devin Shore from Derek Ryan, Philip Broberg | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:11 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Duncan Keith | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 4:35 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse | 0–3 | 82% → 89% |
| P1 8:46 | DET | Marc Staal from Moritz Seider, Taro Hirose | 1–3 | 10% → 17% |
| P1 18:37 | EDM | Kailer YamamotoPP from Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie | 1–4 | 86% → 93% |
| P2 18:06 | DET | Sam Gagner unassisted | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 2:18 | DET | Filip ZadinaPP from Taro Hirose, Nick Leddy | 3–4 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 2:52 | DET | Marc Staal from Sam Gagner, Adam Erne | 4–4 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:15 | EDM | Evander Kane from Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard | 4–5 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 6:32 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Dylan Larkin | 5–5 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 14:35 | EDM | Warren Foegele from Josh Archibald, Duncan Keith | 5–6 | 51% → 88% |
| P3 18:51 | EDM | Evander KaneEN from Leon Draisaitl, Cody Ceci | 5–7 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Staal D | 18:15 | 2 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.83 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:19 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.02 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 12:41 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.08 | +0.34 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 13:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Moritz Seider D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taro Hirose L | 11:15 | 2 | +0.19 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:46 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Olli Juolevi D | 16:10 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 18:31 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 14:23 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:21 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 13:01 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 10:48 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 25:17 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Givani Smith R | 12:32 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 19:52 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:02 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 54:02 | −0.34 |
| Thomas Greiss G | 4:35 | −2.34 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 22:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.19 | +0.25 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.13 | +0.23 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Warren Foegele L | 13:00 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.06 | +0.42 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 18:16 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 12:45 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Evander Kane L | 23:06 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.20 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Archibald R | 7:37 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 21:12 | 2 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:44 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.11 | +0.34 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:46 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 11:48 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 9:58 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 22:24 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:41 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.19 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 6:26 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 7:18 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 17:32 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:17 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 60:00 | −2.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.