WSH beat NYI 4–3 in a shootout. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anders Lee scored on the power play at 18:01 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Vitek Vanecek saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:21 | WSH | Anthony Mantha from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Conor Sheary | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 4:55 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Zdeno Chara, Noah Dobson | 1–1 | 27% → 48% |
| P2 17:02 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 10:13 | WSH | Axel Jonsson-Fjallby from Dmitry Orlov | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 15:02 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Evgeny Kuznetsov | 2–3 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 18:01 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:54 | 1 | +1.49 | −0.22 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.05 | |
| Anders Lee C | 17:29 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.13 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:02 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:58 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:52 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 17:50 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 18:07 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 19:41 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:03 | 1 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.37 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.45 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:25 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Martin L | 14:01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 14:28 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:09 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 12:10 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 16:26 | −0.50 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.45 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 19:13 | −0.61 | +0.05 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 15:24 | 1 | −0.89 | −0.38 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.45 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 24:57 | 2 | −1.01 | −0.36 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 64:51 | +0.55 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 19:43 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.04 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.05 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:19 | +1.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.05 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 10:31 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.02 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 16:34 | +0.18 | +0.27 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 16:05 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 20:36 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:13 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:40 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.40 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 22:37 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 18:46 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 23:05 | −0.20 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:15 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 12:48 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 11:55 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 13:11 | −0.40 | +0.18 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:43 | −0.40 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 17:53 | −0.43 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.36 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 19:06 | 2 | −0.46 | +0.41 | −0.64 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 65:00 | +1.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.