NYR beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.6, NYR 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Adam Fox scored at 0:55 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:29 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from Filip Chytil, Braden Schneider | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 14:05 |  ANA | Maxime Comtois from Troy Terry, Adam Henrique | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 3:06 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:53 | ANA | Cam FowlerPP from Adam Henrique | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 10:35 | ANA | Derek Grant from Danny O'Regan | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 13:40 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin | 3–3 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 0:55 | NYR | Adam Fox from Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Comtois L | 17:09 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.09 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 27:14 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.31 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.27 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Buddy Robinson R | 10:10 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 11:37 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 16:59 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 13:10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:41 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:20 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 16:22 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 22:54 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:57 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Vinni Lettieri C | 15:57 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 19:56 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny O'Regan C | 10:38 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:59 | −0.24 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:18 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 13:28 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:55 | −1.00 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox D | 24:38 | 1 | 2 | +1.13 | +0.46 | +0.45 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.20 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 14:02 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.04 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 18:17 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.10 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:41 | 3 | +0.34 | +0.43 | −0.20 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 21:15 | +0.06 | +0.44 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 16:58 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 16:13 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:35 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 14:47 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 14:56 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:25 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 9:44 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:13 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 8:46 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 16:36 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:02 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 13:35 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:24 | −0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.