ARI beat OTT 5–3. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Schmaltz scored at 7:46 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:39 | OTT | Josh Norris from Brady Tkachuk | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:49 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Phil Kessel, Alex Galchenyuk | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 9:00 | ARI | Lawson CrousePP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Clayton Keller | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:01 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Tim Stützle | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 16:12 | ARI | Lawson CrouseSH unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 7:30 | OTT | Connor Brown from Brady Tkachuk, Artem Zub | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 7:46 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 19:12 | ARI | Barrett HaytonEN from J.J. Moser, Nick Schmaltz | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:19 | 3 | +2.21 | +0.02 | +2.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.13 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Riley Nash C | 11:50 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:17 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 14:10 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:41 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 16:12 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dysin Mayo D | 23:22 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 17:01 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 10:41 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 24:37 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 20:55 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:23 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 16:15 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 11:07 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 19:47 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Capobianco D | 15:12 | −0.39 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 10:56 | −0.62 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +1.16 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 20:15 | 2 | +1.86 | +0.31 | +1.32 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.09 | |
| Connor Brown R | 19:53 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.23 | +0.66 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 19:11 | +0.32 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 15:54 | +0.30 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 18:56 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.34 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 16:31 | +0.16 | +0.22 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 17:19 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 16:53 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 11:48 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 16:41 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 18:01 | −0.02 | +0.24 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:28 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Watson L | 7:25 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 30:36 | −0.11 | +0.23 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 6:35 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 7:40 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 14:54 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:36 | 2 | −1.05 | +0.35 | −1.26 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 59:09 | −2.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.