SEA beat MTL 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (SEA 2.9, MTL 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 17:48 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 8% to 50%. Philipp Grubauer saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:26 |  SEA | Yanni GourdeSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 14:50 | MTL | Michael Pezzetta from Jake Evans | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 16:42 | SEA | Ryan Donato from Marcus Johansson, Vince Dunn | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 15:05 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Marcus Johansson, Morgan Geekie | 3–1 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 1:04 | MTL | Alexander Romanov from Rem Pitlick, Jeff Petry | 3–2 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 17:48 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Ben Chiarot, Alexander Romanov | 3–3 | 8% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanni Gourde C | 20:41 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:33 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.04 | +0.63 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:29 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.18 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +1.05 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 24:25 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 11:42 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.08 | +0.64 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.30 | |
| Kole Lind R | 11:20 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 23:12 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:45 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:51 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:05 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 19:30 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 15:37 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:06 | −0.31 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 12:55 | −0.37 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.45 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:33 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:54 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.45 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:58 | −0.55 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:25 | 1 | −0.80 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 65:00 | +2.75 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.08 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:42 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.16 | +0.88 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.45 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 5:42 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.03 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 27:58 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 24:00 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 16:38 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 13:00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 11:55 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 14:03 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 11:07 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:42 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 11:42 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 20:26 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:42 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:28 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 18:19 | −0.50 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.45 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 19:23 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.05 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.30 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 23:44 | −0.80 | −0.11 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 65:00 | +1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.