WSH beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lars Eller scored at 0:42 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:34 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Nick Jensen, T.J. Oshie | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:17 | WSH | Evgeny KuznetsovPP from Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P3 0:57 |  VAN | Quinn Hughes from J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson | 2–1 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 3:19 | VAN | Bo HorvatPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 4:59 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Travis Hamonic, Quinn Hughes | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 15:07 | WSH | Evgeny KuznetsovPP unassisted | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 0:42 | WSH | Lars Eller from John Carlson, Tom Wilson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 15:54 | 3 | +2.11 | −0.10 | +2.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Lars Eller C | 16:03 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.24 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 19:38 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:21 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 25:27 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 17:29 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:29 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:58 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:51 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 10:56 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 15:01 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:50 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:08 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 13:14 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 13:08 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 13:04 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:09 | −0.45 | −0.06 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 16:53 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:42 | −0.89 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 19:50 | 2 | +1.31 | −0.11 | +1.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.73 | −0.18 | +0.91 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Motte C | 15:01 | +0.20 | +0.23 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:38 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 10:17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 9:56 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 13:34 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 11:06 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 15:13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 16:20 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 14:56 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:30 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 22:01 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Juho Lammikko C | 13:35 | −0.23 | +0.17 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 7:43 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:40 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:48 | −0.55 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 60:42 | −0.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.