PIT beat VGK 5–2. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Friedman scored at 3:49 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Tristan Jarry saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:54 | PIT | Mike Matheson from Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:36 | PIT | Jeff Carter from Brock McGinn, Valtteri Puustinen | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 4:19 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Jonathan Marchessault, Max Pacioretty | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 8:19 | VGK | Alex Pietrangelo from Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 3:49 | PIT | Mark Friedman from Brian Boyle, Jeff Carter | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 14:49 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Jake Guentzel | 2–4 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 17:43 | PIT | Evan RodriguesEN from Kris Letang | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 18:49 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.10 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 24:24 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.10 | +0.58 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 15:27 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 15:44 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 13:26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:08 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:14 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 11:50 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 11:16 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 14:13 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 9:17 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:46 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 24:31 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 16:39 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 20:05 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:50 | −0.66 | +0.06 | −0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:29 | 2 | −0.68 | +0.01 | −0.68 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:45 | −0.70 | −0.24 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 59:28 | −0.44 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Matheson D | 23:35 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Friedman D | 16:23 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.11 | +0.69 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 14:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.16 | +0.48 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 18:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.02 | +0.49 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 26:06 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.33 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 17:00 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 6:40 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 10:14 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Boyle C | 13:26 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:58 | −0.01 | +0.21 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 14:51 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 15:25 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 17:18 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:28 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:44 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:01 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:12 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 13:21 | −0.34 | +0.10 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:18 | +1.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.