MIN beat DET 6–5 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.9, DET 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jordan Oesterle scored at 17:09 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 9% to 51%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:37 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:14 | DET | Jakub Vrana from Joe Veleno, Sam Gagner | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:07 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:09 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Nick Leddy, Alex Nedeljkovic | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:31 | DET | Jakub VranaPP from Filip Hronek, Nick Leddy | 2–3 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 5:52 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Nick Leddy, Vladislav Namestnikov | 2–4 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 9:31 | MIN | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Hartman | 3–4 | 12% → 26% |
| P3 3:04 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Frederick Gaudreau, Alex Goligoski | 4–4 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 12:13 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Mathew Dumba, Joel Eriksson Ek | 5–4 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 17:09 | DET | Jordan Oesterle from Filip Zadina, Joe Veleno | 5–5 | 9% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 15:11 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.04 | +1.64 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:14 | 1 | +1.33 | +0.07 | +0.71 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.70 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.14 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 19:10 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.48 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:44 | +0.17 | +0.20 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:28 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:51 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 8:53 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:34 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 20:02 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 15:38 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 16:06 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 26:35 | −0.18 | +0.21 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 8:28 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 19:27 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 7:11 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:18 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.09 | −0.79 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.22 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 65:00 | −1.99 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Vrana L | 17:04 | 2 | +1.10 | −0.09 | +1.52 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:25 | 2 | +1.04 | −0.32 | +1.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 15:15 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 17:14 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 11:58 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 17:32 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 17:51 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:29 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:45 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 8:27 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:31 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 14:55 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 14:11 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:43 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 15:02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 25:03 | 3 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 20:34 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.21 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:25 | −0.60 | −0.31 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.28 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 64:35 | −2.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.